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It’s Not About Venezuelan Oil, It’s All About China // Kim Iversen
Kim Iversen | Trusted Newsmaker
Why Venezuela Isn’t Really About Oil — It’s About China’s Growing Global Power
For years, U.S. officials have framed Venezuela as a problem of oil, drugs, or narco-terrorism. Yet those explanations increasingly fail to match the facts. Fentanyl does not meaningfully flow from Venezuela, and the country’s heavy crude oil is notoriously difficult and expensive to refine. Instead, a broader strategic picture is coming into focus: Venezuela has become a key battleground in Washington’s effort to counter China’s expanding influence across the Western Hemisphere.
The timing alone has raised questions. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was detained during a period when Caracas was deepening engagement with Beijing, including meetings with Chinese delegations. The rapid transfer of power that followed, and the absence of prolonged internal conflict, fueled speculation that the operation was less about chaos and more about sending a message. That message, analysts argue, was aimed squarely at China.
The Limits of the Oil Narrative
Venezuela does possess the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but the quality of that oil complicates the story. Much of it is extremely heavy crude, closer to tar than conventional petroleum. Refining it yields lower returns and requires specialized infrastructure. While oil remains strategically important, critics note that the United States already produces more oil than any other country and does not need Venezuelan supply to meet domestic demand.
Similarly, drug trafficking claims fall apart under scrutiny. Less than five percent of drugs entering the United States originate from Venezuela, and the fentanyl driving the overdose crisis comes primarily through Mexico, with precursor chemicals tied to China. These realities weaken the official justifications repeatedly offered for aggressive U.S. action in the region.
China’s Economic Reach Changes the Equation
The more compelling explanation lies in China’s global economic rise. Over the past decade, China has become the top trading partner for much of the world, including large portions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Beijing’s approach has emphasized infrastructure, loans, and long-term investment. Ports, railways, power plants, and industrial projects financed by China now shape trade routes and supply chains across the Global South.
Latin America is a particularly sensitive arena. Venezuela has received tens of billions of dollars in Chinese investment through oil-for-loan agreements and joint ventures. From Washington’s perspective, that relationship threatened to give China leverage over critical energy supplies, ports, and transport routes close to U.S. territory. Removing Maduro and redirecting contracts toward U.S. firms would sharply reduce Beijing’s influence.
“Our Hemisphere” and Strategic Messaging
Recent statements by senior U.S. officials underscore this shift in emphasis. Rather than focusing on oil profits or drug enforcement, officials have openly described Latin America as part of the United States’ “hemisphere” and warned against rival powers operating there. Maps and messaging released by the White House reinforced that framing, signaling that the Western Hemisphere is considered strategic home turf.
This posture mirrors long-standing geopolitical doctrines that prioritize influence close to home. As China consolidates economic dominance across Asia and Africa, Washington appears determined to prevent a similar consolidation in the Americas. Venezuela, by virtue of its resources and its ties to Beijing, became an obvious pressure point.
The Greenland and Cuba Connection
Viewed through this lens, other seemingly unrelated moves begin to align. Renewed talk of asserting control over Greenland, pressure on Cuba, and threats aimed at Mexico and Colombia all point to the same strategic logic. Each involves limiting the presence of rival powers in regions the U.S. considers vital to its security and economic standing.
Greenland’s location along Arctic shipping lanes and near critical military routes has attracted both Russian and Chinese interest. U.S. officials have framed their interest in Greenland not as resource extraction, but as national security. The underlying concern is consistent: preventing competitors from gaining footholds near U.S. borders.
A Multipolar World Brings Hard Choices
Many analysts agree the world is entering a multipolar era, where U.S. dominance is no longer automatic. China’s economic power has reshaped global trade, while the United States retains unmatched military reach. The tension arises when economic influence begins to translate into political leverage, particularly in regions historically dominated by Washington.
In this context, Venezuela represents more than a domestic political crisis. It is a test case for how far the United States is willing to go to preserve influence as China expands. The question is not whether countries like Venezuela should be sovereign, but which major power will shape their economic future when external investment becomes unavoidable.
The Real Stakes
Reducing the Venezuela situation to oil alone misses the larger strategic struggle underway. Control over trade routes, investment flows, and regional influence increasingly defines global power. For Washington, losing ground in Latin America to China is seen as unacceptable. For Beijing, U.S. intervention reinforces the belief that economic partnerships must be protected from political disruption.
As the competition intensifies, the consequences will extend beyond Venezuela. The outcome will shape how the United States and China coexist in a world where influence is no longer guaranteed, and where economic power can be as decisive as military force. In that sense, Venezuela is less a destination than a signal — one aimed far beyond its borders.
