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Former Army Ranger Greg Stoker Outlines Expected BLOWBACK in Venezuela // Katie Halper
Katie Halper | Trusted Newsmaker
Former Army Ranger Greg Stoker Warns Trump’s Venezuela Operation Is a Strategic Disaster
Former U.S. Army Ranger and military analyst Greg Stoker is warning that the Trump administration’s operation in Venezuela may appear decisive on the surface, but in reality represents a dangerous strategic failure with long-term consequences. Drawing on his background in special operations and intelligence, Stoker argues that the raid-style mission to detain Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro reflects deep limitations in U.S. power rather than genuine strength.
The operation involved elite U.S. special forces, airstrikes, cyber capabilities, and extensive intelligence coordination. Maduro was captured and transferred into U.S. custody without reported American casualties. Supporters quickly labeled the mission a flawless success. Stoker rejects that framing, warning that tactical success does not equal strategic victory .
Tactical Success, Strategic Failure
According to Stoker, the reliance on a narrowly tailored special operations raid exposes the United States’ inability to sustain a broader military campaign in Venezuela. Pentagon war-gaming has long shown that a conventional invasion would devolve into a prolonged guerrilla conflict requiring massive troop deployments and producing heavy casualties. The decision to avoid that path signals constraint, not confidence.
Stoker compares the situation to earlier regime-change efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, where initial military achievements quickly collapsed into instability. He notes that there is no clear plan for Venezuela’s political future following Maduro’s removal, increasing the likelihood of chaos rather than democratic transition.
Special Operations as Political Theater
Stoker argues that U.S. leaders have increasingly used elite units as tools of political theater, projecting an image of overwhelming dominance while masking broader strategic decline. He points to historical precedents, including Vietnam, where spectacular raids were used to sell strength even as the overall war effort faltered. Venezuela, he says, fits the same pattern.
The operation required detailed intelligence preparation, including knowledge of Maduro’s security arrangements and movement patterns. While impressive on a technical level, Stoker emphasizes that such precision does not translate into long-term control or stability. It demonstrates what the U.S. can do briefly, not what it can manage sustainably.
The DEA Justification and Legal Risks
To provide a legal veneer, the administration pointed to U.S. drug trafficking charges against Maduro and transferred him to the custody of the Drug Enforcement Administration. Stoker warns that this justification is dangerously thin. Maduro does not appear on the DEA’s list of major global drug traffickers, and data shows Venezuela is not a primary source of fentanyl entering the United States.
Using law enforcement indictments to justify the military kidnapping of a foreign head of state, Stoker argues, sets a precedent that could be used against any leader worldwide. Such actions undermine international norms and increase the risk of retaliatory operations by other powers.
Political Incentives and Escalation Risks
Stoker also highlights the domestic political incentives driving the operation. He describes President Trump as highly responsive to optics and televised displays of power, raising concerns that the apparent success of the raid could encourage further military actions without adequate strategic planning.
The danger, Stoker warns, is that short-term political gratification may override sober assessment. Once leaders become accustomed to dramatic military spectacles, escalation can follow even when the underlying conditions for success do not exist.
Backlash Inside Venezuela
Reports from Caracas suggest the operation may have backfired politically. Instead of triggering mass opposition to the government, the attack appears to have unified large segments of Venezuelan society around national sovereignty. Public demonstrations in support of the constitutional order emerged quickly, and senior military officials reaffirmed loyalty to the state.
Stoker notes that foreign intervention often strengthens nationalist sentiment, particularly in countries with long histories of external interference. In this case, the raid may have consolidated resistance rather than weakened it, complicating any future U.S. objectives in the region.
A Warning From Experience
Drawing on decades of U.S. military history, Stoker emphasizes that chaos is easier to create than to manage. Regime change operations are simple to launch but extraordinarily difficult to resolve. Without a clear political settlement, Venezuela risks becoming another long-term destabilization project rather than a success story.
The lesson, Stoker concludes, is one the U.S. has learned repeatedly at great cost: tactical brilliance cannot compensate for strategic failure. Venezuela may soon join the list of interventions where initial success gave way to enduring instability, with consequences felt far beyond its borders.
