Unpacking Netanyahu ‘s Next Steps // Judge Napolitano

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Netanyahu, Trump, and the High-Stakes Chess Game in Washington

As the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for yet another consequential visit to Washington, the timing couldn’t be more fraught. At the intersection of two smoldering conflicts — Ukraine and Gaza — and a rapidly shifting global power structure, his rendezvous with former President Donald Trump is far more than a political photo op. According to foreign policy heavyweight Professor John Mearsheimer, this meeting is a strategic maneuver with sweeping geopolitical implications.

A Pentagon Running on Empty

One of the core insights from Mearsheimer is the material reality behind America’s foreign entanglements. With massive shipments of artillery shells and missiles flowing simultaneously to Ukraine and Israel, the U.S. is rapidly depleting its own military reserves. “We privilege quality over quantity,” Mearsheimer notes, meaning our stockpiles are limited and replacement is neither quick nor cheap. This puts Trump — and likely Biden too — in a precarious position. Do you continue arming two allies in two different theaters of war, while risking your own military readiness in East Asia? Or do you start cutting someone off?

Ukraine: Collateral in a Bigger Game?

Mearsheimer doesn’t mince words: morality is no longer on the table. The idea that U.S. foreign policy decisions are based on human rights or ethical considerations is, in his view, “out the window.” Trump, he says, would sell Ukraine out “if he thought it was in his interest.” And the data supports the direction of that interest. With military support pipelines running dry, a decision point is looming. Once Biden-era weapon deliveries stop, Trump — or whoever is in charge — will face a stark choice: refill the pipeline, or let Ukraine fight alone.

Netanyahu’s Shopping List

Against this backdrop, Netanyahu’s U.S. visit looks more like a transactional negotiation than a diplomatic meeting. With the Israeli campaign in Gaza dragging on — and international outrage mounting — Netanyahu seeks unconditional U.S. backing, more weapons, and perhaps legal cover for what critics call war crimes. “He’ll ask for everything,” Mearsheimer predicts. “And he’ll probably get it.” Especially if Trump sees Netanyahu as a political ally in both foreign and domestic arenas.

What’s in It for Trump?

Why would Trump — known for his isolationist leanings and “America First” rhetoric — keep arming Israel? Because it aligns with domestic political strategy. Netanyahu remains a beloved figure among Trump’s evangelical base and neoconservative donors. Supporting Israel, even aggressively, is often seen not just as foreign policy but as electoral currency. Trump may feign neutrality on Ukraine while doubling down on Israel, a move that pleases his base and buys loyalty abroad.

The Real Test: After the Pipelines

Mearsheimer points out that all the current moves are just the warm-up. The real test will come when pre-approved Biden-era weapon shipments are exhausted. What happens when Trump — or whoever wins in 2024 — has to go to Congress for new funding? That’s when we’ll see whether America’s commitment to Ukraine and Israel is rhetorical or real. And given the growing split in the Republican Party, even among Trump allies, this could become a political battlefield as intense as the foreign ones it impacts.

America’s Foreign Policy Fork in the Road

The dual conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are no longer just foreign policy dilemmas — they’re mirrors reflecting America’s internal fracture. Mearsheimer’s brutal honesty cuts through partisan narratives. This isn’t about democracy vs. tyranny. It’s about resource management, political expediency, and the cold calculus of empire in decline.

As Netanyahu prepares to charm, threaten, or pressure his way into another American weapons package, and as Trump decides who’s useful and who’s expendable, the rest of the world watches with a mix of anxiety and resolve. The question isn’t who America supports next. It’s whether it can afford to support anyone at all.

Bottom Line? Netanyahu’s visit isn’t just symbolic — it’s strategic. Trump’s indecision on Ukraine isn’t weakness — it’s leverage. And America’s dwindling arsenal isn’t a glitch — it’s the canary in the imperial coal mine.

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