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How Myanmar Fuels Asia’s Cold War // Caspian Report
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How Myanmar Fuels Asia’s Cold War
Myanmar’s 2021 coup set off a chain of violence that continues to destabilize Southeast Asia. With 82,000 dead and over 3.2 million displaced, the country has become a fractured battlefield where ethnic militias, the military junta, and foreign powers clash. The conflict is no longer confined to Myanmar—it has become a proxy arena in Asia’s new Cold War.
A Nation in Collapse
The State Security and Peace Commission under General Min Aung Hlaing controls less than 20% of Myanmar’s territory. Ethnic groups dominate the rest:
– The Kachin Independence Army pursues full autonomy or independence in the north.
– The Arakan Army seeks a separate Rakhine nation in the west.
– The Karen and Kareni continue their decades-long struggle for self-rule.
– Shan State is divided among rival factions, some wanting federal autonomy, others full secession.
Meanwhile, the People’s Defense Force, backed by Myanmar’s exiled civilian government, pushes for federal democracy but faces friction with ethnic militias opposed to unionism.
China’s Double Game
China plays all sides. It supplies weapons to the junta while also allowing Chinese-made arms to flow to rebels like the United Wa State Army and Arakan Army. Beijing’s balancing act ensures no faction targets its strategic assets: pipelines, ports, and the $7.3 billion deep-water port at Kyaukphyu. For China, Myanmar is a lifeline—its only land corridor to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Malacca Strait.
India’s Security Anxiety
India’s interest lies in stabilizing its northeast frontier, where insurgents use Myanmar as a base. New Delhi has carried out cross-border strikes and drone attacks on separatists. Unlike China, however, India lacks leverage with militias and has little economic stake in Myanmar. Its policy is reactive, driven by fear of spillover violence.
The American Approach
The U.S. avoids directly arming rebels but supports Myanmar’s exiled civilian government with non-lethal aid. A $248 million U.S. consulate under construction in Chiang Mai, Thailand, signals a deeper role—likely intelligence operations. Reports suggest Washington may consider bases in Bangladesh or even a no-fly zone over Rakhine to weaken Myanmar’s air force and disrupt China’s corridor projects.
Russia’s Airpower Lifeline
Since the 1990s, Myanmar has relied on Russian arms—MiG-29 jets and Mi-35 helicopters—to counter rebels. These gunships now play a central role in suppressing opposition. However, Russia’s Ukraine war diverts its focus, leaving its future role in Myanmar uncertain. While Moscow helps sustain the junta, it operates separately from Beijing’s balancing strategy.
Thailand’s Delicate Balance
Thailand permits exiled forces to operate near its border towns like Mae Sot but avoids direct involvement. Bangkok fears instability spilling across its frontier and hesitates to antagonize China. Its role is passive tolerance, not active participation.
Myanmar as a Proxy Battleground
Myanmar is now a testbed for great-power rivalry. China builds infrastructure to secure trade and energy routes. India strikes rebels to secure its frontier. The U.S. leverages intelligence and covert aid to block China’s expansion. Russia supplies weapons to keep the junta alive. The result: a collapsed state fueling Asia’s Cold War, where foreign powers pull the strings and the local population pays the price.
Myanmar’s war is not just a civil conflict—it is a regional Cold War in miniature. China, India, Russia, and the U.S. all see strategic stakes in its future. Until the proxy battles stop, peace will remain elusive, and Myanmar will remain a battlefield for others’ ambitions.
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