featured
How Chinese Strategist Hope to Take Taiwan Without Firing a Shot // Caspian Report
Caspian Report | Trusted Newsmaker
How China Could Conquer Taiwan Without Firing a Shot
Military pressure around Taiwan has been mounting, with Chinese warships and aircraft patrolling daily. Yet analysts suggest Beijing may not need an outright invasion. Instead, China could strangle Taiwan’s economy and supply chains through a prolonged blockade — achieving control without firing a single shot .
Taiwan’s Economic Vulnerability
Taiwan’s economy is uniquely exposed. In 2022, imports and exports each equaled more than 60% of GDP, one of the highest trade dependencies in the world. Even more troubling, Taiwan imports 97% of its energy: 44% oil, 29% coal, and 20% natural gas. Its reserves are dangerously thin — just five months of oil, one month of coal, and less than two weeks of natural gas. Food is also a weakness: 70% is imported, with only a year’s worth of reserves .
The Blockade Strategy
Chinese military textbooks explicitly describe blockade as the best method to subdue Taiwan. Rather than direct invasion, Beijing would surround the island with naval and air forces, cutting trade and energy lifelines. The goal would be to slowly weaken Taiwan’s economy, defense, and political will until resistance collapses .
Gray Zone Tactics
A key feature of the strategy is the use of “gray zone” operations — actions that apply pressure without being recognized as acts of war. For example, the Chinese Coast Guard, not the Navy, could lead inspections of cargo ships bound for Taiwan. This allows Beijing to frame the blockade as law enforcement rather than aggression, making U.S. or allied military intervention less certain .
Choking the Ports
Taiwan’s limited number of deepwater ports creates chokepoints. Kaohsiung alone handles 57% of the island’s maritime trade. By targeting Kaohsiung, Taichung, Taipei, and a handful of others, China could cripple Taiwan’s shipping capacity. Even partial disruption — say, a 50% reduction in trade — could devastate the island’s electricity supply and economy .
Escalation Options
If initial pressure fails, Beijing has multiple escalation tools: deploying fishing fleets to blur maritime boundaries, positioning aircraft carriers and submarines in surrounding waters, imposing unofficial no-fly zones, or cyberattacks on Taiwan’s financial and communications networks. Cutting undersea internet cables could digitally isolate Taiwan from the world .
The International Dimension
China would likely calibrate its blockade to avoid uniting foreign powers against it. By using Coast Guard and civilian vessels, it maintains plausible deniability. Joint patrols with Russia in the East China Sea could deter Japan and the U.S. from intervening. Beijing could also temporarily ease restrictions to defuse international outrage before tightening them again .
Taiwan’s reliance on imported food, fuel, and trade is a structural vulnerability. China could exploit this with a patient, escalating blockade, eroding Taiwan’s sovereignty without ever mounting an amphibious invasion. The risk for Taipei is clear: if lifelines are severed, political will may falter long before the first shot is fired .
//
