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How Israel’s Strike on Qatar Could Backfire // Caspian Report
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How Israel’s Strike on Qatar Could Backfire
In a dramatic escalation, Israel carried out its first-ever strike inside Qatar, targeting senior Hamas political leaders in the heart of Doha. The operation, aimed at Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashal, coincided with U.S.-backed ceasefire talks. Both men survived, but at least five Hamas officials were killed. The fallout from this strike could reshape regional diplomacy, undermine U.S. security guarantees, and destabilize Qatar’s delicate role as mediator in the Gaza conflict .
A Blow to Diplomacy
For years, Qatar has been the hub of ceasefire negotiations, hostage releases, and backchannel talks. By striking inside Doha, Israel effectively killed the latest round of negotiations and sent a message that no location is safe for its adversaries. Hamas has accused the U.S. of complicity, noting that the meeting targeted by Israel was arranged at Washington’s urging. This has led to speculation that the ceasefire proposal was less about peace and more about luring Hamas leaders into a trap .
U.S. Complicity and Confusion
Official accounts about Washington’s role are murky. The White House claims it only learned of the strike once it was already underway and relayed a warning to Doha. Qatari officials, however, insist no such warning was received. The logistics also raise questions. Israeli F-35s would have needed mid-air refueling to complete the mission, suggesting cooperation with U.S. or allied forces. Meanwhile, Qatar’s advanced air defenses — including Patriots, Thaad, and Eurofighters — remained silent, fueling speculation that Doha may have been pressured to stand down .
The End of Safe Havens
The strike highlights a dangerous new precedent: even states that host U.S. bases are not immune to attacks. Qatar is home to Al Udeid, the largest U.S. airbase in the Middle East, yet American security guarantees appear meaningless. This follows Iran’s missile strike on the same base months earlier, which also caught Washington flat-footed. For regional states, the message is clear — U.S. protection is unreliable .
Regional Fallout
Doha now faces pressure from multiple sides. Hosting Hamas leaders while serving as mediator once gave Qatar leverage, but the Israeli strike has turned this role into a liability. The emirate may be forced to expel Hamas leadership to avoid future attacks, effectively ending its role as the primary mediator. Mediation could shift to Egypt or the United States, though neither has the credibility to pressure Hamas into a deal. Meanwhile, Israel has signaled that it will not hesitate to conduct further assassinations abroad, raising the risk of wider diplomatic fallout .
Qatar’s Next Move
With U.S. guarantees in tatters, Qatar may seek new security partners. Turkey already maintains troops in the country and could expand its role in air defense. At the same time, Doha may move closer to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to strengthen regional security ties. For now, Qatar’s balancing act between hosting Hamas and maintaining Western alliances is collapsing, leaving it exposed in ways unseen since the 2017 Gulf blockade .
Israel’s strike on Doha achieved little militarily but could have far-reaching strategic consequences. It has derailed ceasefire talks, undermined U.S. credibility, and left Qatar vulnerable. Far from eliminating threats, the operation risks pushing Doha to reconsider its alliances and accelerating instability in an already volatile region. In trying to show strength, Israel may have sown the seeds of deeper isolation and regional realignment .
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